Tesis-Determinantes Empleo Informal: modelo logit a partir ENFT (Tópicos Seleccionados)
Universidad
Autónoma de Santo Domingo (UASD)
Facultad de
Ciencia Económicas y Sociales (FCES)
Escuela de
Economía
Determinantes
Sociales y Económicos del Empleo Informal en la República Dominicana
T E S I S
Para Optar por la Licenciatura en Economía
Sustentantes:
Juan B. Rodríguez Núñez –
100269400
Freddy M. Ogando Montero – 100265377
Isaac E. Guerra Salazar –
100251848
Asesor:
Antonio Ciriaco Cruz Ph.D
Clasificacion
de la Journal Economic Literature (JEL)
C33, E26, J21, O17
4 de septiembre de 2017
Santo Domingo D.N.
República Dominicana
Índice de Contenido
Capítulo 3 Marco Teórico y Antecedentes
Capítulo 4 Metodología
y Fuente de Datos
4.1 Modelo Aplicado –
Logit Binomial
4.2 Diseño de la
Investigación
Capítulo 5
Caracterización Mercado Laboral y Perfil Empleados Informales
5.1 Caracterización del
mercado laboral
5.2 Perfil de los
Agentes Informales
Capítulo 6 Incidencia y
Efecto de los Determinantes (Resultados del Modelo)
6.2 6.2 Efecto de los
Determinantes a Través del Ciclo de Vida
Capítulo 7 Conclusiones
y Recomendaciones
9.4 Metodología de la
Encuesta Nacional de Fuerza de Trabajo (ENFT)
Índice de Cuadros
Índice de Gráficos
GRÁFICO 2: Simulación de
predicción de probabilidades en Máxima Verosimilitud.
Cuadro 1- Población por año y sexo,
según naturaleza, zona, nivel educativo y grupo edad: (2010, 2013 y 2016)
|
|
2010-a |
2013-a |
2016-a |
|||||||
|
|
Hombre |
Mujer |
Total |
Hombre |
Mujer |
Total |
Hombre |
Mujer |
Total |
|
|
PET |
3,953,069 |
4,000,720 |
7,953,789 |
4,184,080 |
4,228,939 |
8,413,019 |
4,389,916 |
4,374,653 |
8,764,569 |
|
|
Crecimiento |
- |
- |
- |
5.84 |
5.70 |
5.77 |
4.92 |
3.45 |
4.18 |
|
|
% Total |
49.70 |
50.30 |
100.00 |
49.73 |
50.27 |
100.00 |
50.09 |
49.91 |
100.00 |
|
|
PEA |
2,686,829 |
1,684,086 |
4,370,915 |
2,829,994 |
1,860,129 |
4,690,123 |
3,034,096 |
2,062,934 |
5,097,030 |
|
|
Tc |
- |
- |
- |
5.33 |
10.45 |
7.30 |
7.21 |
10.90 |
8.68 |
|
|
% Total |
61.47 |
38.53 |
100.00 |
60.34 |
39.66 |
100.00 |
59.53 |
40.47 |
100.00 |
|
|
Zona |
||||||||||
|
Urbano |
40.21 |
29.04 |
69.25 |
39.46 |
29.80 |
69.26 |
39.06 |
29.56 |
68.63 |
|
|
Rural |
21.26 |
9.49 |
30.75 |
20.88 |
9.86 |
30.74 |
20.46 |
10.91 |
31.37 |
|
|
Nivel educativo |
||||||||||
|
Pre-esc|Primar |
27.74 |
12.58 |
40.33 |
26.02 |
11.79 |
37.81 |
23.90 |
11.64 |
35.55 |
|
|
Secund|TecVoc |
18.94 |
12.85 |
31.79 |
20.52 |
13.76 |
34.28 |
21.47 |
13.97 |
35.43 |
|
|
Univ|Post-Unv |
9.73 |
11.33 |
21.06 |
9.30 |
12.53 |
21.83 |
9.78 |
13.34 |
23.11 |
|
|
Ninguno |
5.05 |
1.77 |
6.82 |
4.50 |
1.58 |
6.08 |
4.23 |
1.43 |
5.65 |
|
|
Grupo edad |
||||||||||
|
10 – 19 años |
5.50 |
2.67 |
8.17 |
4.98 |
2.27 |
7.26 |
4.26 |
2.19 |
6.44 |
|
|
20 – 39 años |
29.84 |
21.44 |
51.28 |
29.25 |
21.37 |
50.61 |
28.31 |
21.29 |
49.60 |
|
|
40 – 59 años |
20.37 |
12.63 |
33.00 |
19.85 |
14.03 |
33.87 |
19.89 |
14.08 |
33.97 |
|
|
60 o más |
5.69 |
1.73 |
7.41 |
6.20 |
1.98 |
8.18 |
7.05 |
2.89 |
9.95 |
|
|
TGP |
67.97 |
42.09 |
54.95 |
67.64 |
43.99 |
55.75 |
69.12 |
47.16 |
58.15 |
|
|
Zona |
||||||||||
|
Urbano |
67.48 |
45.66 |
56.21 |
67.34 |
47.83 |
57.29 |
68.76 |
50.20 |
59.31 |
|
|
Rural |
68.91 |
33.98 |
52.32 |
68.20 |
35.39 |
52.57 |
69.81 |
40.50 |
55.77 |
|
|
Nivel educativo |
||||||||||
|
Pre-esc|Primar |
59.61 |
29.60 |
45.28 |
58.12 |
29.29 |
44.47 |
59.10 |
32.36 |
46.51 |
|
|
Secund|TecVoc |
75.88 |
48.58 |
61.83 |
77.41 |
49.96 |
63.42 |
77.66 |
51.63 |
64.79 |
|
|
Univ|Post-Unv |
83.41 |
72.84 |
77.37 |
81.47 |
76.07 |
78.28 |
80.40 |
76.35 |
78.01 |
|
|
Ninguno |
69.57 |
25.24 |
47.79 |
69.05 |
26.77 |
48.98 |
74.12 |
28.25 |
52.58 |
|
|
Grupo edad |
||||||||||
|
10-19años |
24.86 |
12.76 |
18.98 |
23.84 |
11.51 |
17.85 |
22.76 |
12.60 |
17.87 |
|
|
20-39años |
90.19 |
62.86 |
76.31 |
90.18 |
67.34 |
78.89 |
89.81 |
69.01 |
79.52 |
|
|
40-59años |
92.02 |
55.60 |
73.57 |
92.73 |
59.16 |
75.09 |
93.12 |
63.61 |
78.10 |
|
|
60omás |
52.33 |
15.08 |
33.20 |
51.05 |
15.63 |
32.94 |
55.80 |
21.12 |
37.76 |
|
|
Pob. Ocupada (PO) |
2.425,334 |
1,315,263 |
3,740,597 |
2,549,499 |
1,437,643 |
3,987,142 |
2,787,542 |
1,631,408 |
4,418,950 |
|
|
Ritmo Crecimiento |
- |
- |
- |
5.12 |
9.30 |
6.59 |
9.34 |
13.48 |
10.83 |
|
|
TO |
61.35 |
32.88 |
47.03 |
60.93 |
34.00 |
47.39 |
63.50 |
37.29 |
50.42 |
|
|
PO/PEA |
90.27 |
78.10 |
85.58 |
90.09 |
77.29 |
85.01 |
91.87 |
79.08 |
86.70 |
|
Nota:
Seleccionado en gris indica mayor representación del total de población
económicamente activa
Fuente. Elaboración propia a partir
de la Encuesta Nacional de Fuerza de Trabajo (ENFT), encuesta abril 2010,2013,
2016.
Cuadro 2 - Población Ocupada por año
naturaleza empleo, según grupos seleccionados: Porcentaje Población Ocupada
(2010, 2013 y 2016)
|
|
2010-a |
2013-a |
2016-a |
||||||||||||
|
|
Formal |
Informal |
Total |
Formal |
Informal |
Total |
Formal |
Informal |
Total |
||||||
|
Total |
44 |
56 |
100 |
44 |
56 |
100 |
47 |
53 |
100 |
||||||
|
Grupo Edad |
|||||||||||||||
|
10-19años |
1.68 |
4.73 |
6.42 |
1.34 |
4.17 |
5.50 |
1.62 |
3.32 |
4.93 |
||||||
|
20-39años |
25.50 |
24.29 |
49.79 |
25.23 |
23.51 |
48.74 |
26.41 |
21.44 |
47.85 |
||||||
|
40-59años |
14.73 |
20.66 |
35.39 |
15.32 |
21.12 |
36.44 |
15.76 |
20.43 |
36.19 |
||||||
|
60omás |
2.08 |
6.16 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
6.86 |
9.22 |
3.71 |
7.28 |
10.99 |
||||||
|
Nivel educativo |
|||||||||||||||
|
Pre-esc|Primar |
10.98 |
30.17 |
41.16 |
9.97 |
28.41 |
38.38 |
10.62 |
25.68 |
36.30 |
||||||
|
Secund|TecVoc |
13.83 |
16.05 |
29.87 |
15.12 |
17.15 |
32.27 |
16.28 |
17.68 |
33.96 |
||||||
|
Univ|Post-Unv |
17.79 |
3.85 |
21.64 |
17.95 |
4.85 |
22.80 |
19.39 |
4.00 |
23.39 |
||||||
|
Ninguno |
1.45 |
5.88 |
7.33 |
1.24 |
5.30 |
6.54 |
1.12 |
4.95 |
6.06 |
||||||
|
Sexo según zona |
|||||||||||||||
|
Hombre |
26.26 |
38.58 |
64.84 |
26.22 |
37.72 |
63.94 |
28.06 |
35.02 |
63.08 |
||||||
|
Urbano |
20.19 |
21.31 |
41.50 |
19.76 |
21.64 |
41.39 |
21.01 |
19.96 |
40.97 |
||||||
|
Rural |
6.07 |
17.27 |
23.34 |
6.46 |
16.09 |
22.55 |
7.05 |
15.06 |
22.12 |
||||||
|
Mujer |
17.79 |
17.37 |
35.16 |
18.06 |
18.00 |
36.06 |
19.43 |
17.49 |
36.92 |
||||||
|
Urbano |
14.77 |
11.95 |
26.73 |
15.12 |
12.49 |
27.61 |
15.77 |
12.02 |
27.79 |
||||||
|
Rural |
3.02 |
5.42 |
8.43 |
2.94 |
5.51 |
8.45 |
3.66 |
5.47 |
9.13 |
||||||
|
Quintiles ingreso |
|||||||||||||||
|
1 |
4.61 |
12.08 |
16.69 |
2.95 |
8.16 |
11.11 |
1.45 |
4.44 |
5.89 |
||||||
|
2 |
6.82 |
12.63 |
19.45 |
5.69 |
11.21 |
16.90 |
4.40 |
7.30 |
11.70 |
||||||
|
3 |
8.70 |
11.70 |
20.39 |
8.66 |
12.99 |
21.65 |
7.50 |
11.31 |
18.80 |
||||||
|
4 |
10.39 |
11.03 |
21.42 |
10.98 |
13.34 |
24.32 |
11.16 |
14.13 |
25.29 |
||||||
|
5 |
13.53 |
8.52 |
22.05 |
16.02 |
10.02 |
26.03 |
22.99 |
15.33 |
38.32 |
||||||
|
*Jefe Hogar |
21.60 |
29.96 |
51.56 |
21.52 |
30.41 |
51.93 |
22.98 |
28.52 |
51.50 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condición |
|||||||||||||||
|
*pobre |
8.14 |
18.30 |
26.45 |
8.44 |
18.79 |
27.22 |
6.48 |
12.17 |
18.65 |
||||||
|
*subempleo |
12.04 |
21.57 |
33.61 |
11.17 |
22.58 |
33.75 |
13.13 |
20.41 |
33.54 |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grandes Regiones
Planificación |
|||||||||||||||
|
Metropolitana |
18.88 |
14.60 |
33.48 |
18.47 |
15.17 |
33.64 |
19.33 |
13.52 |
32.85 |
||||||
|
Cibao Norte |
14.27 |
22.55 |
36.82 |
14.46 |
21.80 |
36.27 |
15.83 |
20.67 |
36.50 |
||||||
|
Este |
5.16 |
6.41 |
11.58 |
5.72 |
6.34 |
12.06 |
6.04 |
6.72 |
12.76 |
||||||
|
Sur |
5.73 |
12.39 |
18.12 |
5.63 |
12.41 |
18.03 |
6.31 |
11.59 |
17.90 |
||||||
Perfil de los Agentes Informales
Cuadro 5- Empleo Informal por rama
actividad económica, según año y grupos seleccionados: Porcentaje empleo
informal a nivel de rama (2016 y variación respecto a 2010 y 2013).
|
|
Agr-ga |
Exp-Mi |
Ind-Ma |
Constr |
Comerc |
Hot-Re |
Tra-Co |
Int-Fi |
Otr-Se |
Total |
|
Quintiles ingreso |
||||||||||
|
1 |
12.32 |
38.39 |
5.85 |
4.77 |
7.95 |
8.08 |
5.01 |
2.44 |
9.35 |
8.46 |
|
2 |
20.22 |
29.25 |
9.83 |
11.68 |
12.39 |
10.58 |
13.27 |
4.64 |
13.21 |
13.9 |
|
3 |
25.39 |
- |
20.87 |
20.37 |
19.85 |
18.19 |
20.51 |
9.45 |
22.68 |
21.54 |
|
4 |
24.3 |
26.45 |
28.77 |
30.75 |
27.6 |
26.91 |
26.01 |
18.57 |
27.08 |
26.9 |
|
5 |
17.76 |
5.91 |
34.67 |
32.42 |
32.22 |
36.25 |
35.21 |
64.9 |
27.68 |
29.2 |
|
Brecha Ing/ hora |
-6.83 |
-124.18 |
2.16 |
-86.62 |
-73.13 |
-8.58 |
-0.88 |
-15.02 |
190.57 |
-112.76 |
|
Horas efectivas trabajadas |
||||||||||
|
Menos de 44 |
2.49 |
- |
1.34 |
1.32 |
2 |
2.08 |
1.78 |
0.59 |
2.14 |
2 |
|
44omash |
97.06 |
100 |
97.59 |
98.46 |
98 |
97.67 |
97.28 |
99.41 |
97.66 |
97.69 |
|
Condición |
||||||||||
|
Buscó Otra Actividad |
14.71 |
8.67 |
12.52 |
20.68 |
11.66 |
16.18 |
16.63 |
12.12 |
14.69 |
14.56 |
|
Jefe Hogar |
64.46 |
58.69 |
49.71 |
64.38 |
52.23 |
45 |
61.28 |
77.21 |
42.11 |
54.33 |
|
Seguro Salud |
0.14 |
- |
0.72 |
0.08 |
3.49 |
0.7 |
0.66 |
11.57 |
3.67 |
2 |
|
Pobre |
31.77 |
67.64 |
17.64 |
17.96 |
21.05 |
19.07 |
18.86 |
9.42 |
24.67 |
23.18 |
|
Afiliado Sindicato |
0.03 |
- |
2.26 |
0.18 |
0.39 |
4.2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Variación 2010-2016 |
||||||||||
|
Quintiles ingreso |
||||||||||
|
1 |
21.88 |
- |
9.42 |
12.52 |
8.31 |
10.23 |
13.90 |
0.73 |
11.20 |
13.14 |
|
2 |
8.31 |
-10.75 |
10.58 |
12.58 |
6.50 |
9.23 |
7.60 |
4.81 |
9.30 |
8.67 |
|
3 |
-7.03 |
-17.21 |
1.67 |
-0.77 |
2.07 |
4.42 |
1.86 |
6.55 |
-0.72 |
-0.63 |
|
4 |
-11.84 |
-18.49 |
-6.59 |
-6.65 |
-5.87 |
-4.92 |
-2.48 |
-5.85 |
-6.05 |
-7.19 |
|
5 |
-11.33 |
- |
-15.08 |
-17.68 |
-11.00 |
-18.96 |
-20.87 |
-6.23 |
-13.73 |
-13.98 |
|
Brecha
Ing/ hora |
-6.83 |
-124.18 |
-2.16 |
-86.62 |
-73.13 |
-8.58 |
-0.88 |
-15.02 |
190.57 |
-112.76 |
|
Horas efectivas trabajadas |
||||||||||
|
Menos de 44 |
-0.68 |
- |
-0.67 |
0.29 |
-1.02 |
-0.78 |
-1.06 |
7.98 |
0.03 |
-0.46 |
|
44omash |
0.94 |
- |
1.30 |
-0.17 |
0.53 |
0.31 |
1.52 |
-10.03 |
-0.01 |
0.43 |
|
Condición |
||||||||||
|
Buscó Otra Actividad |
-5.36 |
0.58 |
1.22 |
-3.31 |
-2.13 |
-4.99 |
-4.62 |
6.98 |
-2.83 |
-3.20 |
|
Jefe Hogar |
-0.80 |
-22.57 |
2.42 |
1.33 |
-3.39 |
-2.75 |
2.00 |
-14.75 |
-3.03 |
-0.78 |
|
Seguro Salud |
0.03 |
- |
2.30 |
- |
-1.86 |
0.48 |
-0.18 |
-5.36 |
-2.75 |
-1.01 |
|
Pobre |
15.97 |
13.86 |
9.78 |
9.56 |
5.41 |
9.76 |
11.46 |
-4.49 |
6.02 |
9.53 |
|
Afiliado Sindicato |
0.07 |
- |
-1.88 |
1.15 |
-0.23 |
-3.50 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Fuente. Elaboración propia a partir de la Encuesta Nacional
de Fuerza de Trabajo (ENFT), encuesta abril 2010, 2013 y 2016.
Cuadro 8.
Determinantes del empleo informal en República Dominicana, efecto marginal
promedio, Odds ratio, desagregado por hombre y mujer, estimaciones a marzo
2016.
|
Regresoras |
General |
Hombre |
Mujer |
|||
|
Odds ratios |
Efecto Marginal |
Odds ratio |
Efecto
Marginal |
Odds ratio |
Efecto
Marginal |
|
|
Pareja |
0.77 |
-0.06*** |
0.7 |
-0.08*** |
1.03 |
0.01 |
|
(0.01) |
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
||||
|
Mujer |
2.02 |
0.16*** |
||||
|
(0.01) |
||||||
|
Jefe del
hogar |
0.93 |
-0.02 |
0.87 |
-0.03* |
1.23 |
0.05** |
|
(0.01) |
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
||||
|
Migro
busca |
0.78 |
-0.06*** |
0.64 |
-0.10*** |
1.42 |
0.09** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
(0.04) |
||||
|
Nivel
educativo |
||||||
|
Primaria o
preescolar |
1.01 |
0.003 |
1.15 |
0.03 |
0.65 |
-0.11** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
Secundario
o técnico |
0.56 |
-0.14*** |
0.68 |
-0.09*** |
0.34 |
-0.26*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
Universitario y post-universitario |
0.14 |
-0.46*** |
0.24 |
-0.34*** |
0.07 |
-0.55*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.04) |
(0.03) |
||||
|
Grupo
etario |
||||||
|
20-39 años
|
0.63 |
-0.11*** |
0.6 |
-0.11*** |
0.58 |
-0.13** |
|
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
40-59 años |
0.81 |
-0.05* |
0.83 |
-0.04 |
0.7 |
-0.09 |
|
(0.03) |
(0.04) |
(0.06) |
||||
|
60 o más
años |
0.88 |
-0.03 |
0.96 |
-0.01 |
0.76 |
-0.07 |
|
(0.03) |
(0.04) |
(0.06) |
||||
|
Ingreso
familiar |
||||||
|
Pobre |
1.4 |
0.08*** |
1.27 |
0.05** |
1.78 |
0.14*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
||||
|
Quintil 2 |
1.29 |
0.06** |
1.62 |
0.10*** |
0.93 |
-0.02 |
|
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
Quintil 3 |
1.21 |
0.04*** |
1.11 |
0.02 |
1.43 |
0.09*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
||||
|
Quintil 4 |
1.14 |
0.03** |
1.02 |
0.005 |
1.41 |
0.08*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
||||
|
Rama de
actividad |
||||||
|
Agricultura
y ganadería |
8.6 |
0.39*** |
13.52 |
0.44*** |
2.77 |
0.24*** |
|
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
Explotación
minas |
1.05 |
0.01 |
1.53 |
0.09 |
0 |
|
|
(0.10) |
(0.08) |
|||||
|
Manufactura |
1.06 |
0.02 |
1.74 |
0.11*** |
0.58 |
-0.13*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
(0.04) |
||||
|
Construcción |
16.68 |
0.39*** |
25.15 |
0.38*** |
1.42 |
0.09 |
|
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.20) |
||||
|
Comercio |
5.86 |
0.34*** |
7.83 |
0.34*** |
5.52 |
0.38*** |
|
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.02) |
||||
|
Hoteles y
restaurantes |
1.45 |
0.08*** |
1.6 |
0.10*** |
1.43 |
0.09*** |
|
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
||||
|
Transporte y comunicaciones |
8.21 |
0.34*** |
14.42 |
0.35*** |
0.9 |
-0.03 |
|
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.09) |
||||
|
Intermediación
financiera |
1.2 |
0.04 |
3.43 |
0.21*** |
0.31 |
-0.27*** |
|
(0.04) |
(0.03) |
(0.07) |
||||
|
Dimensión
espacial |
||||||
|
Urbana |
0.9 |
-0.02* |
1 |
0.0002 |
0.75 |
-0.07*** |
|
(0.01) |
(0.02) |
(0.02) |
||||
|
Metropolitana |
0.88 |
-0.03 |
0.95 |
-0.01 |
0.85 |
-0.04 |
|
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.04) |
||||
|
Cibao
Norte |
0.86 |
-0.04 |
0.97 |
-0.01 |
0.73 |
-0.08* |
|
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.04) |
||||
|
Cibao Sur |
1.08 |
0.02 |
1.17 |
0.04 |
0.96 |
-0.01 |
|
(0.03) |
(0.03) |
(0.05) |
||||
|
Cibao
Nordeste |
1.35 |
0.07*** |
1.81 |
0.12*** |
0.89 |
-0.03 |
|
(0.02) |
(0.03) |
(0.04) |
||||
|
Cibao
Noroeste |
0.72 |
-0.08*** |
0.82 |
-0.04 |
0.58 |
-0.14*** |
